Here’s a detailed technical analysis of Nifty Realty Index for the week of 30 June – 4 July 2025, followed by a probability-based outlook for the upcoming week.
📉 Weekly Recap: 30 June – 4 July
From opening at 986.55 on 30 June, Nifty Realty corrected to 971.95 by 4 July, a weekly decline of around 1.5% (investing.com). Volume remained elevated mid-week (~34 million on 1 July), easing later as the index settled in the 963–972 range .
Moneycontrol labels the weekly trend as Neutral with key levels: support near 958–962, resistance around 978–983 (moneycontrol.com).
🔍 Technical Observations
1. Key Support & Resistance
- Support: Around 960–965, reinforced by daily lows: 965.15 on 30 June and 962.25 on 3 July (in.investing.com).
- Resistance: Pivot and classic resistance near 970–978, with an upper band at 982–990 (moneycontrol.com).
2. Moving Averages (MAs)
- 5/10/20-day EMAs are bullish and price remains near them (~970 range), showing short-term support .
- 50/100/200-day MAs are still above, signaling medium to long‑term bullish bias (in.investing.com).
3. Momentum & Oscillators
- RSI (~46) in neutral territory (topstockresearch.com).
- MACD shows bearish bias (MACD below signal), though histogram narrowing suggests potential stabilization .
- ADX (~22) shows no clear trend strength; other indicators mixed but leaning bullish (in.investing.com).
4. Candlestick Patterns
- Multiple bullish reversal patterns formed midweek: “Bullish Engulfing,” “Bullish Hammer,” “Three Outside Up,” hinting at short-term bottoming (in.investing.com).
- A shooting star on monthly bars suggests caution on broader timeframe (in.investing.com).
🎯 Probability-Based View: 7–11 July
| Outlook | Probability | Conditions | Target/Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish | ~40% | Bounce off 960–965 support, maintain above 970 pivot, positive macro cues | Rally to 982–990, then 1,000+ if breakout holds |
| Neutral | ~45% | Rangebound between 960–983, sideways consolidation, waiting for catalysts | Traders may scalp between these levels |
| Bearish | ~15% | Break below 960 with volume, sustaining lower than 950 pivot, global market weakness | Risk of drop to 940–950 |
📅 Key Sessions to Monitor
- 7 July (Mon): Opening reaction to 4 July pattern, check support test at 965.
- Mid-week: Watch macro data or RBI cues—might shift momentum.
- Breakout/Breakdown Levels: A weekly close beyond 983 turns focus to 1,000+. Below 960, risk skews bearish.
✅ Risk & Trade Setup
- Intraday stop-loss near pivotal 960–962 support.
- Entry considered on recovery above 978 with confirming volume.
- Risk alert: Sustained dip below 960 highlights deeper weakness—possibly toward 940–950.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This article is for educational purposes only. We are not SEBI-registered analysts. Please consult your investment advisor before making any financial decisions.