Here’s a detailed technical analysis of Nifty Realty for the week of 23–27 June 2025, followed by a probability-based outlook for the coming week.
📊 Weekly Market Recap: 23–27 June
- Price movement: Nifty Realty opened around 1,012.65 on June 23 and closed at 993.95 on June 27, slipping ~1.5% on Friday and ending the week ~2% down .
- Volatility & volume: Daily ranges exceeded 10–20 points, with average daily volumes around 10–12 million shares .
- Overall trend: After a sharp breakout earlier in June (+8% month‑to‑date), mid‑week profit‐booking set in, turning the short‐term trend neutral to slightly bearish .
🔍 Technical Chart Observations
- Support & Resistance Zones
- Support: Near 990–1,000, reinforced by June 27’s intraday low of ~991.5 .
- Resistance: Around 1,017–1,020—Friday’s high of 1,017.35 caps upside in the short term .
- Moving Averages (MAs)
- Current spot (993.95) is below the short-term 20‑day MA (~1,003) implying near-term bearishness .
- It remains well above the longer 50‑ and 200‑day MAs, suggesting the broader uptrend from early June is intact .
- Momentum Indicators
- MACD: Issued a bullish crossover mid‑June according to MunafaSutra, but the vector is now flattening—momentum is stalling .
- RSI: Hovering in mid‑range (40–60), reflecting a neutral-to-mildly bearish bias; no oversold signal.
- Chart Patterns
- Potential emerging cup‑and‑handle base—a bullish formation—per forum chatter. But the handle is shallow and yet to confirm via breakout .
🎯 Probability-Based Outlook for 30 June–4 July
Bullish Scenario (40%)
- A bounce from the 990–1,000 support zone triggers recovery toward 1,017–1,020 resistance.
- A clear breakout above 1,020 with volume could pave the way back to monthly highs near 1,040+.
- Macro tailwinds (RBI rate cuts, positive real estate demand) bolster upside .
Neutral/Sideways (45%)
- Trading oscillates between 990–1,020, forming a consolidation triangle or channel.
- Relative calm as traders await fresh catalysts such as RBI policy signals or global interest rate cues.
Bearish Scenario (15%)
- Breakdown below 990 leads to selling pressure toward next support at 965–975.
- Negative sentiment from broader markets, profit-taking in cyclical stocks, or global shocks could amplify this move.
🗓️ Key Sessions to Watch
- June 30: A potential time‑cycle pivot that may define whether markets break out or break down next week .
- July 1–5 trading window: Previous patterns show this period often delivers sharp intra‑week shifts .
✅ Summary Table
| Outlook | Trigger | Target Range |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish (40 %) | Bounce from 990–1,000 + volume breakout | Up to 1,020–1,040+ |
| Sideways (45 %) | Mix of mixed volumes, no breakout | 990–1,020 |
| Bearish (15 %) | Breakdown below 990 → negative market cues | 965–975 |
⚠️ Risk Management & Technical Alerts
- A close below 990 would shift bias more bearish—monitor for follow-through.
- A break above 1,020–1,025 with sustained volume would confirm bullish resumption.
- Keep tabs on macro cues: RBI meetings, global real estate demand, and FII flows .
Disclaimer: This write-up is meant for learning and educational purposes only. We are not a SEBI‑registered analyst. Please consult your investment advisor before making any trading or investment decisions.